3-5 August: IFN 2009 Issuers & Investors Asia Forum, Kuala Lumpur
9-10 September: Kurdistan Region Trade & Investment Summit, London
5 October: Doha Business Roundtable, Doha
11-14 October: Saudi Water and Power Forum, Jeddah
12 October: Euromoney Middle East Debt Markets Conference, Abu Dhabi
12-14 October: World Islamic Retail Banking, Dubai
12-15 October: Banking Outlook Middle East, Dubai
14-15 October: Unconventional Oil, London
14-15 October: Getenergy for Iraq, Istanbul
19-21 October: Middle East Investments Summit, Dubai
27–28 October: Gas to Liquids, London
27-29 October: Offshore Middle East 2009, Bahrain
23 November: The World in 2010 Executive Forum, Dubai
7-9 December: Iraq Petroleum, London
Briefings & Reports
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In addition to producing the flagship fortnightly Gulf States Newsletter, GSN’s team of experienced analysts also produce briefings and reports on a range of topics and issues that affect the region. Our expertise can be tapped by anyone and delivered in a range of formats. For more information contact Nick Carn. nick@gsn-online.com
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GSN’s county-by-country coverage of the Gulf.
Select the country you require by clicking on the name of that country in the map below. Each country page includes recent and archived GSN articles, maps, family trees, and other resources. Regionally focused articles on a selection of issues affecting the Gulf may be found on this page, below the map.
Engagement without marriage: Beltway pessimistic as Obama’s team prepares to tackle Iran
Barack Obama’s first 100 days passed, the new administration is getting down to Middle East business in Washington DC. The process looks likely to be incremental and workmanlike, with none of the pizzazz of failed Bush-era ideas like the ‘Axis of Evil’ or ‘Greater Middle East Initiative’. While GSN’s recent canvassing within the Beltway found considerable scepticism among the foreign policy elite at the new administration’s willingness to engage ‘rogue states’, the Obama team is not naïve, and is lining up an early test of how to deal with Iran. Issue 853, 15 May 2009.more
The Obama administration seems to have neither the appetite nor a good plan for dealing with the Palestinian Islamist militant party Hamas, which controls Gaza and could do very well in the West Bank against its ruling rival Fatah in upcoming Palestinian Authority (PA) elections. Issue 853, 15 May 2009.more
Syria and region: ‘Wedge theory’ falls out of favour in DC
As it focuses on what many in Washington view as Iran’s uncomfortable rise up the international pecking order, US analysts are reappraising old ideas about detaching Syria from the so-called Shia Crescent linking Iran and Hizbollah in Lebanon. This so-called ‘Wedge Theory’ argued that a strategic deal with Syria, most likely involving peace with Israel and international rehabilitation, could be used to induce Damascus to end its strategic alliance with Iran and cut off one avenue of support for Hizbollah and Hamas.
Issue 853, 15 May 2009.more
Obama visit confirms Turkey’s central status in new regional nexus
The region stretching from the Bosphorus to the Gulf must accommodate itself to a new strategic reality, as the United States – under new management and with a harrowing roster of domestic issues to resolve – disengages from Iraq, while focusing hard on Afghanistan and its neighbours. And there are signs that key governments are rethinking their alliances, to fit the new perceived reality of power politics after George W Bush. It is in this context that President Barack Obama will visit Turkey on 6-7 April, with his administration seeking to “re-engage” with the region – which places the USA as one of a range of powers seeking to renew their relations with Ankar. Issue 849, 13 March 2009.more
Israeli lobby gets Freeman’s scalp
Veteran diplomat, linguist and former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Chas Freeman, has withdrawn from consideration for the position of National Intelligence Council chairman (GSN 848/4). Only two weeks ago, director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair named Freeman to the position – a move that former assistant secretary of the Treasury Paul Roberts said could be seen as an “appointment that could challenge the Israel lobby’s stranglehold.” Issue 849, 13 March 2009.more
US mulls the lessons of 30 years of containing Iran as it readies sticks and carrots
The Obama administration’s decision to attempt diplomatic re-engagement with Iran provides a moment of excruciating discomfort for many US politicians and generals. GSN has been exposed to some of the thinking going on inside the Pentagon, as well as in the think tanks and State Department offices charged with charting a path through this dangerous territory. Issue 848, 27 February 2009.more
UAE’s US ties flourish as Emirates seek to become a different kind of US ally
The UAE has deliberately stepped up its rhetoric to support US policy in the region while the Obama administration is settling in and preparing to receive its first briefings on Centcom’s region-wide assessment of Gulf policy. Personal and collaborative technology relations between the two militaries have become very close, even on such thorny policy issues as Iran’s nuclear programme. Issue 847, 13 February 2009.more
UAE nuclear programme waits on Obama
The signing of a bilateral agreement on civil nuclear co-operation with George W Bush’s administration prior to the Republican president’s departure from office has raised some eyebrows in the United States, for fear that it will spark a ‘nuclear arms race’ in the region. But in the Gulf, the agreement – which has yet to be approved by either President Barack Obama’s administration or Congress – is being seen as signalling a potential shift in the regional balance of power, as well as marking progress in the UAE’s plans to develop non-hydrocarbons sources of energy. Issue 846, 30 January 2009.more
Commander-in-Chief? Washington unsure whether Obama or Petraeus will lead Gulf policy
With the Obama camp keeping its cards close to its chest on key appointments and foreign policy, Gulf watchers have been left pondering what the US president elect intends to do in the region – whether Obama will opt for continuity or change, and how the anticipated strategic ‘pivot’ to Afghanistan will affect Gulf policy. Issue 841, 21 November 2008. more
US candidates struggle to forge distinctive Middle East manifestos
GSN has braved a welter of forums, brown bag lunches and fundraisers to get a closer look at the Obama and McCain camps’ regional policy plans. The conclusion: the candidates’ Middle East manifestos are largely similar, with the emphasis on toughness and smart diplomacy. Obama is more focused on Afghanistan, while McCain remains Iraq-minded – but the endless qualifications added to each pronouncement by the candidates’ minders mean it is still near impossible to draw firm conclusions on the USA’s policy direction in 2009-12. Issue 837, 26 September 2008. more
Saudi Arabia strikes security deals with Bush
Saudi Arabia signed agreements that underline its military alliance with the United States, during President Bush’s mid-May visit. GSN’s analysis shows that by joining the Proliferation Security Initiative Riyadh is helping Washington to squeeze Iran during a period of increasing naval ‘contacts’ in the Gulf. Issue 830, 30 May 2008. more
Centcom schmoozes GCC as USA seeks new security consensus
Centcom’s Fallon has been taking a diplomatic approach in an attempt to firm up the GCC stance on Iran. US officials told GSN the new Gulf Security Dialogue was registering positive results, but apart from easing through new arms sales much remains to be done to persuade GCC leaders to view regional security risks from an American perspective. Issue 814, 28 September 2007:moreAlso see: Arms sales give one area of consensus over ‘Gulf security’
US administration reshapes Iraq policy personnel, policy, ambitions
Donald Rumsfeld retired hurt, Scooter Libby is serving time, but some neoconservatives remain to wage their ideological battles inside the Washington Beltway – many of them clustered around Dick Cheney. The influence of the Office of the Vice President (OVP) cannot be overstated, even if the Iraq policy Cheney was so instrumental in delivering is in tatters. Issue 811, 3 August 2007.more
Transport aircraft boom continues with $3.4bn deal
The UAE on 24 February took its latest plunge into the global defence market, formally signing a letter of request for $3.4bn worth of US military hardware from The Boeing Company and Lockheed Martin. The deal was the centrepiece of the ninth International Defence Conference and Exhibition (IDEX) in Abu Dhabi. Reflecting the oil emirate’s leading role in the federation’s defence procurement, Abu Dhabi-based investment firm Al-Waha Capital will manage the purchase. Issue 848, 27 February 2009.more
UAE’s US ties flourish as Emirates seek to become a different kind of US ally
The UAE has deliberately stepped up its rhetoric to support US policy in the region while the Obama administration is settling in and preparing to receive its first briefings on Centcom’s region-wide assessment of Gulf policy. Personal and collaborative technology relations between the two militaries have become very close, even on such thorny policy issues as Iran’s nuclear programme. Issue 847, 13 February 2009. more
Iran and Israel dance around issue of ‘game changing’ air defence systems
Reports of an upcoming sale of the Russian-built SA-20 systems to Iran will focus Israeli minds on the need to acquire F-22 fighter aircraft technology, whose export is currently banned by US law. Issue 846, 30 January 2009.more
Senior UAE, Qatari sheikhs talk big business – and small arms – in Algiers
A flurry of diplomatic missions to Algiers during November emphasised the strengthening trade and investment bonds within the Middle East and North Africa region: defence deals were on the agenda. Issue 842, 5 December 2008.more
Europeans on top in Saudi Arabia as manufacturers vie for combat aircraft sales in GCC
The Saudi Eurofighter purchase has given the European consortium a vital lead in the long-term market for the RSAF’s eventual replacement of some 178 strike aircraft by around 2020. Boeing may yet sell F-15s to the RSAF, but if the United States is betting on major sales in the Gulf, it is to Iraq and the UAE, not the Kingdom. France is also a player, with its hopes for major combat aircraft sales analysed by GSN in an article below. Issue 840, 7 November 2008. more
Saudi interest in US vessels sends warning to European defence industry
The US Navy has been pushing hard to secure GCC buyers for its littoral combat ships, putting down a marker of its intentions to get into Saudi and other regional markets that traditional European suppliers cannot ignore. Issue 824, 29 February 2008. more
Congress gears up to block Saudi munitions deal, US government works to save other Gulf sales
Reflecting growing bilateral ties in the sphere of defence planning, the US and UAE scripts on the seriousness of Iran’s nuclear programme are quickly coming into sync. Just over a month since the UAE Armed Forces Officers Club in Abu Dhabi hosted the first Middle East Missile and Air Defence Conference, a government-run think-tank issued statements that were unusually blunt in describing the nuclear threat to the region. Issue 847, 13 February 2009.more
Kuwaiti border made more secure as the state returns to southern Iraq
Plenty of security concerns persist in the northern Gulf, some obvious, others less so – for example, Kuwait is increasingly concerned about the security of its porous Saudi border (GSN 834/6). But there are reasons to be cheerful too, notably on the Iraqi front, where criminality and political manoeuvring remain big actual and potential problems across borders in the region, but where new Iraqi security forces are starting to have an impact on the organised crime culture that has flourished in post-Saddam Iraq. Issue 846, 30 January 2009.more
Qataris consider ways of keeping Iranians off their rigs
The problem of Iranian penetration of Qatar’s exclusive economic zones (EEZs) has long been a thorny one for the Qatari Emiri Navy (QEN), the emirate’s coast guard and Qatari Emiri Air Force (QEAF). GSN’s periodic surveys of the Project National Security Shield (NSS) system of radar and coastal surveillance has focused on the deep paranoia and touchiness that Doha feels when confronted with Iran’s powerful and unpredictable naval forces. With the giant North Field/South Pars gas reserve not yet unitised, the shared field still has a ‘wild west’ feel about it, with the Iranians and Qataris staking out their claims with rigs instead of fence posts. Issue 845, 16 January 2009.more
Iraqi and Kuwaiti navies join forces in northern Gulf coalition
Kuwait and Iraq have signed their first formal military agreement since the 1990-91 occupation, as both countries build up their coastal security.
When Saddam Hussein’s Iraq invaded Kuwait on 2 August 1990, the stoutest and longest resistance came from the Kuwaiti Coast Guard (KCG). For the 12 years that separated the 1991 liberation of Kuwait until Saddam’s fall, it was the KCG that was involved in the greatest number of armed clashes and police actions against Iraqi forces. For these reasons, the late December collaborative patrolling agreement between the Iraqi Navy and the KCG is a major step forward, as the first formal military agreement between the two countries since the occupation nearly 18 years ago. Issue 845, 16 January 2009.more
Somali pirates take on allcomers in Gulf of Aden
An increasing number of pirate attacks is likely in the Gulf of Aden throughout this year, according to GSN’s sources in the maritime security world, as the ‘Somali Marines’ stake their claim to the waterway.
Considering the concentration of Western naval power in the Gulf of Aden, mostly part of Combined Task Force 150 focused on Somalia, many analysts have been surprised that pirates have not backed down in their current confrontation with the international community. However, a GSN contact gave an alternate view: “The Somali Marines have learned that even the large numbers of Coalition vessels in the Gulf [of Aden] cannot seriously impact them because to a helicopter or other intelligence collection system, pirate boats look just like any other vessel.” Issue 828, 2 May 2008. more
Iran continues its penetration of Iraq, and woos Moqtada towards Qom
With Moqtada Al-Sadr under intense pressure to unleash his militiamen from their six-month truce which expired in late February, Iran’s hand is growing noticeably stronger in Iraq. The trend was visible in Tehran’s high-handed decision to walk away from a long-overdue third round of trilateral talks with Iraq and the United States. Iran may return to the negotiating table – and it will do so from a position of growing assurance. Issue 824, 29 February 2008. more
US intelligence casts doubt on Iraq blowback risk to neighbours
Across the US intelligence community there is a recognition that the flow of foreign fighters into Iraq is decreasing – to be replaced by Iraqi jihadists. This trend suggests that following the US-led surge’s successes the Iraqi conflict will enter a new phase, where the threat of ‘blowback’ may be reduced for the Gulf states but where Iraq itself remains in civil war and Iraqi-born jihadists emerge as a global threat. Issue 818, 23 November 2007. more
Arab-Persian ‘Cold War’ mentality proliferating in the Gulf
Once debate was unleashed in Iran’s election, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s maverick foreign policy came to play an important role in shaping opinion, among ordinary voters who see beyond populist sentiments to count the cost of Iran’s isolation as well as among elite players who have increasingly come to view the incumbent as a liability. Issue 855, 12 June 2009.more
Tehran/Crescent gas dispute
The row over gas sales between Sharjah-based Crescent Petroleum and Iran has resurfaced as both sides continue to dispute the contractual terms of an agreement to export Iranian gas to the UAE (GSN 812/12). Under pressure to meet rising domestic demand, the dispute began when the Islamic Republic decided that the agreed price for its gas was too low. Now, Iran is saying that Crescent will have to fulfil other conditions for the agreement to be finalised. Issue 848, 27 February 2009.more
Saudi claims of ‘Al-Qaeda in Iran’ reawaken old nightmares
Saudi police sources, quoted by the pan-Arab daily Ash-Sharq Al-Awsat, claimed that 41 suspected Al-Qaeda members were sheltering in Iran, benefitting from the Tehran authorities’ tolerance. This is not the first such accusation against the Islamic Republic. Issue 847, 13 February 2009. more
Regional diplomatic outlook: opportunities and risks combine at a strategic moment of truth
The GCC is struggling to develop coherence as a diplomatic player at a critical moment for the region, with the domestic politics of Israel and Iran in play, and the cast of key players going through a period of change. News that ex-president Mohammad Khatami will bid to recover his old job in this summer’s Iranian elections will be welcomed by the United States and its Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) allies, who see the prospect of a return to office for a reformist figurehead offering a small spark of hope at a time of intensifying rivalries for regional influence. These rivalries were exposed by disputes over how to react to the Israeli assault on Gaza, and are reflected in deepening mistrust between Iran and its neighbours. The embarrassing ‘war of the summits’ – in which three rival meetings were hosted by governments to discuss the Gaza crisis – provoked some commentators to talk darkly of a ‘new Cold War’ rift between radicals and moderates. Issue 847, 13 February 2009. more
First Saudi Arabia, now Jordan – Qatar mends regional relations
The impending official visit of the Jordanian royal couple to Doha signals another step in Qatar’s efforts to rebuild regional relations that were, in part at least, hurt by Al-Jazeera Satellite Channel’s irreverent reporting of regional leaderships. The mid-November visit of Jordanian Prime Minister Nader Dahabi to Qatar suggested that bilateral relations were truely on the mend, following months of ‘peace offerings’ which included the appointment of an ambassador to Doha and the exchange of messages between King Abdullah II and Emir Sheikh Hamad Bin Khalifa Al-Thani. King Abdullah visited late last year for talks with Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassim Bin Jabr Al-Thani (HBJ) – a must given Qatar’s role as a key interlocuter in a range of Middle East disputes – and as GSN went to press it was announced that with Queen Rania he would start a two-day official visit on 24 November. Issue 841, 21 November 2008. more
Saudi foreign policy: Obama will find a self-confident Kingdom that states its terms
In little over three years of rule, King Abdullah’s Saudi Arabia has steadily gained in diplomatic confidence. It’s not just because of its wealth that Riyadh is now a major destination on the foreign policy map for international leaders. Saudi Arabia has emerged as a partner that knows its own mind, able to forge policy that is in line with the government’s view of national self-interest but which also pushes a positive global and regional agenda. Issue 840, 7 November 2008. more
Iran and its Arabian neighbours: ties that bind and tensions that persist
Closer ties with the GCC states are developing into a key priority for Iran as it seeks to promote an agenda of regional solutions to regional problems, in the hope that its Arabian Peninsula neighbours will become gradually less reliant on what Tehran sees as US and Western security policy direction. But the Iranians will have to defuse GCC exasperation with the more ideological and sectarian facets of their strategy – a mistrust that is deeply rooted even among Arabian advocates of pragmatic engagement, GSN’s soundings have found. Issue 832, 30 June 2008. more
Saudi/UAE border negotiations grind to a halt in regional stalemate
In a region where borders were mostly settled years ago, a handful of territorial disputes involving GCC states are still to be negotiated, starting with the revived Saudi/UAE spat that affects the massive Shaybah oil field. Issue 804, 27 April 2007. more
Orange juice diplomacy holds a glimmer of hope for the region
Iraq is far from turning a corner in its struggle to restore a semblance of peace and implement workable federal governance arrangements, but the Baghdad security conference did represent a potential start of a process to reduce tensions in the region. GSN seeks to answer some of the most frequently asked questions about the current dangerous turn in the region’s geopolitics. Issue 801, 16 March 2007. more
French foreign policy reflects Sarko’s great Middle East expectations
Two years into his presidency, Nicolas Sarkozy is starting to reap the rewards of an election night promise to place the Middle East among the key priorities of French foreign policy. Arab governments now see Paris as a key point of contact and leverage, a useful counterpoint to their traditionally close relations with Washington, and a strategic ally in propping up the peace process and countering the strategic challenge posed by Iran. Abu Dhabi’s decision to welcome the first permanent French military base in the Gulf – opened by ‘Sarko’ late last month (GSN 853/1) – has given public profile to this developing partnership. It is an indication both of the increased clout that Paris now carries – and the raised expectations that result. Issue 855, 12 June 2009.more
Booming Libya finds common interests with Gulf grandees
Colonel Qadhafi’s most prominent son has an impressive network of friends in the Gulf monarchies, which is good news for all concerned as Libya opens up to its own special version of economic liberalism and GCC-based investors line up mega-projects in North Africa. Issue 815, 12 October 2007.more
Democracy and Social issues
Middle Eastern women: huge achievements, but their full potential remains untapped
In a sign of changing times, the UK Conservative Party’s Middle East Council (CMEC) hosted a forum on 28 October in London to highlight the achievements of Middle Eastern women, and discuss what remains to be done to improve their rights. The panel included Iranian professor of politics and women’s studies at York University Baroness Haleh Afshar, First Secretary at Bahrain’s embassy in London Zeina Hamad Al-Khalifa and Stratreal Foundation’s corporate philanthropy head Sandra Al-Gudady, an Iraqi-Jordanian. Issue 840, 7 November 2008. more
Old style sponsorship to go as Saudis move to overhaul an outmoded labour regime
Domestic human rights campaigns and international pressure have combined to persuade an increasingly image-conscious government down the path of a reform that has social and economic implications for the whole region. Issue 837, 26 September 2008. more
Forbes magazine’s latest listing of the world’s richest people counted plenty of individuals and families based in the Gulf. GSN lists the wealthiest Gulfis giving Forbes’ Arab rich list ranking, along with our own take on the players and their recent activity. Issue 826, 4 April 2008. more
Insolvencies, fraud allegations and lax accounting: credit crunch reveals GCC’s business underbelly
Ratings downgrades for major Saudi investors, a potential systemic crisis in Kuwait where investment companies are in freefall, fraud charges against well-connected Dubai developers and a marked lack of performance by Abu Dhabi’s investment flagship. A cross-section of business stories in this issue of GSN paints a sobering picture of the potential pitfalls that can befall investors in the GCC, even if the region hasn’t been as dramatically affected by the global credit crunch as other parts of the world. Issue 855, 12 June 2009.more
Depressed PF market regains momentum with ‘stunning’ Dolphin deal
After eight months in the doldrums triggered by the global credit crisis, Middle East project finance has bounced back to life with the stunning commitment of $3bn from commercial banks to refinance the Dolphin pipeline. With liquidity still very tight, a boost was necessary to bring banks back into the international syndications market. Issue 852, 1 May 2009.more
Islamic finance: a real alternative to boom or bust?
It is not immune to the impacts of the global financial crisis, but scholars and financiers argue that this is a ‘golden opportunity’ to promote the Islamic finance industry as a more responsible alternative to conventional banking. Just like conventional banks, Islamic financial institutions (IFIs) are suffering from tight liquidity, but if the principles of sharia-compliant financing were followed, we would not be in the current financial mire, scholars and financiers argued at Euromoney’s annual Islamic Finance Summit. Issue 848, 27 February 2009.more
GCC power-brokers rally behind banks to counter credit crunch contagion
GCC policy-makers are taking decisive steps to shore up confidence, as local markets suffer from global financial meltdown, tumbling oil prices and wavering enthusiasm. In articles below, GSN talks to key GCC and international players about the regional impacts of a global crisis. Troubled institutions can expect support, but US banks and others looking for a further injection from sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) may be disappointed. Issue 839, 24 October 2008. moreAlso see:Banking systems confronted by liquidity crunch
Credit squeeze bites at the edges: GCC ‘satellite markets’ test underwriters’ appetites
The Gulf Co-operation Council region has so far shown itself to be relatively insulated from calamities in the global financing markets, but several of what financiers call the GCC’s ‘satellite countries’ remain challenging propositions for bankers and insurers, although some big deals – notably Yemen LNG – are still coming to market. Issue 828, 2 May 2008.more
Liquidity pressures, emerging asset classes force open the potential financing base for GCC projects
The Gulf is enjoying enormous liquidity, while at the same time the demands for capital from banks, property, equity and other investors are rising, as ever more project and other investment opportunities present themselves within the region. This dynamic is increasingly reflected in project financiers’ search for new sources of capital; the market’s traditional standbys, of bank and ECA financing, are being accompanied by newer instruments in complex PF structures – and this trend will accelerate further in 2007. Issue 800, 2 March 2007.more
Risk analysts remain cool-headed over violence in Gaza, such episodes are ‘built into risk thinking’
GSN canvassed opinion in the credit and political risk markets to see how financing for the wider Middle East region might be affected by the New Year conflict. GSN may not agree with all their views, but specialist analysts can move markets, and several saw the Israeli assault on Gaza as a warning to Tehran; some believed that Israel would consider military intervention in Iran over the next six months, even without US support – but only as a last resort. Issue 845, 16 January 2009.more
Iran’s GCC and European business ties a concern for US Treasury
Iran’s use of financial institutions in the GCC and Europe to bypass sanctions remains at the centre of concern for the US Treasury’s counter-terrorist financing unit.
With the international community’s spotlight pointing firmly at Iranian financial institutions for their potential links to so-called weapons of mass destruction proliferation and terrorist financing activities, the view from Washington is that Iran is making increased use of its business ties with the GCC countries, and branches of its banking institutions in Europe and elsewhere to disguise illegal activities. Issue 838, 10 October 2008.more
GCC numbers getting bigger, say insurers
A growing international underwriting presence in Dubai, Qatar and other GCC countries has begun to transform the Middle East insurance market, participants told GSN.
Credit crunch jitters are starting to affect the region, but there remains huge potential in several financial sectors, including the Gulf insurance market. Premium volumes generated within the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) market have risen by 20% over the past five years, but they still represent just 0.17% of the global insurance industry, according to Qatar Financial Centre (QFC) insurance business development unit director James Sutherland. QFC has drawn in high-profile names such as the Aon, AIG, American Life Insurance Company (Alico), Axa, HSBC Insurance Brokers, Marsh and Zurich groups since its creation in 2005. Issue 837, 26 September 2008.more
Corporate governance comes under new spotlight
While many GCC-based companies are looking to regional stock markets to grow their capital, cases of fraud and financial irregularities have also increased in these still immature markets. It is a worrying trend that ambitious – and anxious – authorities know they must address. Issue 834, 25 July 2008.more
‘Terrorist financing’: New targets, new tactics
As the wave of litigation against Saudi and other alleged ‘terrorist financiers’ seems to recede, US lawyers are stepping up the pressure on high-profile financial institutions. Issue 803, 13 April 2007.more
The row over gas sales between Sharjah-based Crescent Petroleum and Iran has resurfaced as both sides continue to dispute the contractual terms of an agreement to export Iranian gas to the UAE (GSN 812/12). Under pressure to meet rising domestic demand, the dispute began when the Islamic Republic decided that the agreed price for its gas was too low. Now, Iran is saying that Crescent will have to fulfil other conditions for the agreement to be finalised. Issue 848, 27 February 2009.more
Gulf companies buy into African energy assets
The credit crunch is slowing down the pace of investments, but the announcement that a Dubai government flagship is to ‘invest $16bn’ in Nigeria serves as a reminder of the extent to which Gulf investors have sought out new business in Africa. GSN has tracked the move of Gulf business players into the continent over a long period, and can record some real investments as well as the usual welter of statements of intent that mark the entry of apparently ever more Arab investors into African business. Issue 846, 30 January 2009.more
Construction material producers eye global upstream opportunities to keep up with demand
Soaring prices and the short supply of materials are threatening the regional construction industry, prompting some of the region’s producers to consider ‘backward integration’ strategies to secure the natural resources needed for finished or semi-finished building materials. Issue 834, 25 July 2008.more
Omani project points to booming trend in Gulf smelter construction
Aluminium smelters are all the rage across the GCC. The comparative advantage of low energy costs combined with forecasts of almost insatiable global demand for the metal are driving a policy of rapid industrial diversification which is being replicated in country after country. Issue 824, 29 February 2008.more
Special Report Part II: Gulf companies target African energy plays
In the second part of this Special report, compiled in association with GSN’s sister publication African Energy, GSN continues its examination of the companies buying into emerging African markets, looking at players based in Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. We start with the most recent deal, Premier Oil’s Abu Dhabi tie up. Issue 822, 1 February 2008.more
Special Report Part I: Gulf companies target African energy plays
A new wave of Gulf investment is seeking out prime stakes in Africa’s resources boom, underlined by the announcement that Gulf Finance House plans an economic zone for energy firms operating in Libya. In articles below, GSN examines some emerging players in the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Oman. In the second part of this analysis, to be published in the next issue, GSN will focus on a range of other companies. Issue 821, 21 January 2008.more
Choosing Riyadh as a base shows GCC commitment to monetary union
Saudi Arabia, after all, is to house the planned Gulf Co-operation Council central bank. Following the 11th GCC consultative summit, held in the Kingdom on 5 May, the GCC’s outgoing secretary-general Abdelrahman Al-Attiyah announced that Riyadh would be the new joint monetary council’s base; this institution will eventually evolve into the GCC central bank. Significant challenges remain before achieving this goal, but the move at least suggested that Saudi Arabia was committed to playing a role akin to Euro-pioneer Germany, the European Union’s largest economy, in providing the foundations for a major new regional currency. Issue 853, 15 May 2009.more
After the GCC’s Muscat summit, currency plan credibility hangs on acts, not words
Five country ratification is the first hurdle. Policy and structural detail will have to follow soon if markets are to take the GCC’s monetary union plan seriously.
This promises to be a crucial test year for the commitment of Gulf Co-operation Council members to their long discussed monetary union project. At December’s Muscat summit, GCC heads of state formally endorsed next steps for the scheme. Now they must clear the way for implementation, by ensuring that it is ratified at the national level. While few believe it is now practicable to introduce the planned new single currency at the beginning of 2010, there is a growing market expectation that GCC states need to rapidly finalise and publish the practical details, if they want the plan to be taken seriously. Issue 845, 16 January 2009.more
GCC single currency plan acquires new momentum in an uncertain world
Turbulent times push everyone to buck up their thinking – and in this respect, Gulf Co-operation Council governments are no different from their international counterparts. Soaring oil revenues may provide Arabian states with a wealth cushion against global volatility; but an economic storm that has halved the number of top US investment banks in the course of a single week poses dangers for everyone. In this difficult context, GCC governments have started facing up to the practicalities of implementing their much-discussed plan for the creation of a single currency. In an uncertain global economy, a particularly strong attraction is the role that monetary union could play in fostering the development of an integrated regional capital market. Issue 837, 26 September 2008.more
Calls for GCC exchange rate change grow louder
An international bank with a strong Gulf presence has decided it’s time for business to make the public case for an end to the dollar peg, as the Gulf Co-operation Council currency dispute becomes ever more public. Issue 818, 23 November 2007.more
Kuwait steers course away from failing GCC monetary union
Exasperation with sluggish progress towards a single currency, and a lack of political commitment to the GCC project, has persuaded Kuwait to concentrate on its own national interests. While its GCC partners complain about Kuwait’s move, it argues that the regional boom has undermined integration – so why bother pretending about a single currency? Issue 806, 25 May 2007. more
Islamic finance
Al-Istikhlaf: Regionals set up $10bn wholesale bank
A number of heavyweight regional players are setting up a $10bn Bahrain-based wholesale bank, to be called Al-Istikhlaf. The bank has so far secured $3.5bn from government and private regional investors, and aims to secure the rest before it opens for business by the end of this year. Issue 852, 1 May 2009.more
Islamic finance: a real alternative to boom or bust?
It is not immune to the impacts of the global financial crisis, but scholars and financiers argue that this is a ‘golden opportunity’ to promote the Islamic finance industry as a more responsible alternative to conventional banking. Just like conventional banks, Islamic financial institutions (IFIs) are suffering from tight liquidity, but if the principles of sharia-compliant financing were followed, we would not be in the current financial mire, scholars and financiers argued at Euromoney’s annual Islamic Finance Summit. Issue 848, 27 February 2009.more
Moody's: Islamic finance needs more sophistication
According to the latest Moody’s Investors Service report, Islamic finance is enjoying soaring demand, but requires more sophistication. The autumn 2008 report notes a “dramatic surge” in new Islamic finance institutions (IFIs) attracted by “soaring profits.” The report said this was due to demand for Islamic finance services as retail sector needs remain far from being optimally served by the banking industry, and strong government support. Issue 841, 21 November 2008.more
Takaful: the ethical alternative
Takaful is spreading across an under-insured region – and international investors want a slice of the action.
Insurance has become one of the most fast-growing emerging markets sectors, and in Islamic countries and those others with a big Muslim population, conventional insurance’s Islamic counterpart, takaful, is witnessing massive growth. According to ratings agency Moody’s Investors Service, total takaful premiums exceeded $2bn in 2005, and are expected to reach $7.4bn by 2015. Governments seem particularly keen on promoting takaful to tap into large sections of their population that have stayed away from insurance for religious reasons. Issue 813, 21 September 2007.more
Same products, widely different approaches across the GCC
From Bahrain, which has sought to use its traditional banking and regulatory strengths as a springboard to become a global leader in Islamic finance, to an apparently reluctant Oman, authorities in the GCC have taken strikingly different approaches to sharia-compliant financing. Issue 813, 21 September 2007.more
